I appreciate your exploration of the big questions here!
Regarding future changes in commuting time/distance, I'm curious how much we can learn from the difference between cities where commuter rail is available and convenient vs not.
I agree that people might be OK spending somewhat more time commuting if they don't have to drive, but I think the difference in satisfaction between commuting and actually having more free time is still much larger. Even if you can nap on the train, or in your self-driving car, waking up even earlier to go a further distance is still an annoyance I would argue that most people would rather avoid. So I'd be surprised to see average commute times get anywhere close to doubling in the future.
Perhaps you've thought about this before, but I think a more interesting implication of self-driving cars is the ability to do overnight roadtrips. Destinations that are ~8 hours away from major metros by driving could become more popular, and I could see some specialized vehicles and services emerging for this sometime in the 2030s that might convert some city-dwellers into non-car owners.
Regarding commuter rail; it would be a weak comparison because of the frictions associated with traveling to and from a rail hub.
Regarding average commute times increasing, or not, in the future; the correlating factor with those is housing prices. If these continue to rise from current baselines, expect people to use self-driving cars to enable longer commutes, even if it is annoying.
Overnight roadtrips are an interesting potential market, but it's not something the average person will do in their Cybercab (say); too exhausting to do on a regular basis, because a vehicle form optimized for regular use will not be optimized for overnight trips, and vice-versa. Trips like that, if they go mainstream, will I think be in the specialized vehicles and services that I think you are imagining.
It would be interesting if we had better data on how the option to take the train changes peoples' sensitivity to commute times. Are we willing to trade an extra 15 minutes for a commute where you can read/write emails/watch videos? 30 minutes?
Of course there are mediating variables, but this would give us a much better sense of what will happen to our cities when AVs are adopted en masse. My guess is that people will accept somewhat longer trips--but I don't think it'll make hour long commutes attractive. Time spent watching a movie as your car drives you is still time you're not with your kids, or on your couch, or walking your dog.
I doubt anyone WANTS a long commute. The (ahem) driver there is real estate prices; so long as they remain high, there will be people who choose a longer-but-relatively-painless commute in order to afford a house
I appreciate your exploration of the big questions here!
Regarding future changes in commuting time/distance, I'm curious how much we can learn from the difference between cities where commuter rail is available and convenient vs not.
I agree that people might be OK spending somewhat more time commuting if they don't have to drive, but I think the difference in satisfaction between commuting and actually having more free time is still much larger. Even if you can nap on the train, or in your self-driving car, waking up even earlier to go a further distance is still an annoyance I would argue that most people would rather avoid. So I'd be surprised to see average commute times get anywhere close to doubling in the future.
Perhaps you've thought about this before, but I think a more interesting implication of self-driving cars is the ability to do overnight roadtrips. Destinations that are ~8 hours away from major metros by driving could become more popular, and I could see some specialized vehicles and services emerging for this sometime in the 2030s that might convert some city-dwellers into non-car owners.
Regarding commuter rail; it would be a weak comparison because of the frictions associated with traveling to and from a rail hub.
Regarding average commute times increasing, or not, in the future; the correlating factor with those is housing prices. If these continue to rise from current baselines, expect people to use self-driving cars to enable longer commutes, even if it is annoying.
Overnight roadtrips are an interesting potential market, but it's not something the average person will do in their Cybercab (say); too exhausting to do on a regular basis, because a vehicle form optimized for regular use will not be optimized for overnight trips, and vice-versa. Trips like that, if they go mainstream, will I think be in the specialized vehicles and services that I think you are imagining.
It would be interesting if we had better data on how the option to take the train changes peoples' sensitivity to commute times. Are we willing to trade an extra 15 minutes for a commute where you can read/write emails/watch videos? 30 minutes?
Of course there are mediating variables, but this would give us a much better sense of what will happen to our cities when AVs are adopted en masse. My guess is that people will accept somewhat longer trips--but I don't think it'll make hour long commutes attractive. Time spent watching a movie as your car drives you is still time you're not with your kids, or on your couch, or walking your dog.
I doubt anyone WANTS a long commute. The (ahem) driver there is real estate prices; so long as they remain high, there will be people who choose a longer-but-relatively-painless commute in order to afford a house