Andrew, you are absolutely correct that the transit agencies should shoulder this responsibility here. Supplementing budget busting bus routing is the most compelling argument I have heard yet. One thing to remember though, most public transportation agencies are in the business of moving people only after creating jobs. This might be a tough sell.
I feel like we already saw a preview of this with micromobility, where cities at best grudgingly tolerated and at worst actively impeded or outright banned what could have been a revolutionary improvement to transportation. I'm curious if you compare to the politics of that to figure out how to avoid making the same mistakes again
Great comparison. In the case of micro mobility it requires a complete overhaul of our streetscape and how we interact with it. We are not nimble decision makers so to your point we just threw in the towel. I fear that autonomous cars will face the opposite problem. At the onset they require absolutely no involvement for it to work on the existing right of ways. Which means we will get apathy from decision makers and the all the shortcoming listed above will be sure to come to pass.
We look at it to some extent. The difference is that scooters and their ilk annoyed everyone who was not a scooter-user, i.e., almost everyone, by polluting walkways with unused devices, riding on sidewalks and menacing pedestrians, riding recklessly in mixed traffic, and so forth. Robotaxis will annoy some people; help others; and make no difference to yet another set. The politics will be different... but even so, grudging toleration and outright impediment are clearly future possibilities!
Great job. I think you overlooked a third path (it would be #2 on the list). That is for the Waymo's of the world to continue to grow and grow and become the dominant transportation provider. It doesn't end different than #1 (it still "will tend to worsen congestion, sprawl, inequity, and the inefficient use of urban space") but it deserves to be mentioned, as this is some people's vision and worth recognizing that the outcome is just as bad.
What you suggest, in a nutshell, is a scenario that is the subject of Chapter 12: how robotaxi dominance might happen, the mixed results from a public-good perspective, and how we might improve the outcomes through appropriate policy. Future issues of CHANGING LANES will explore that some... as does the book!
What you suggest, in a nutshell, is a scenario that is the subject of Chapter 12: how robotaxi dominance might happen, the mixed results from a public-good perspective, and how we might improve the outcomes through appropriate policy. Future issues of CHANGING LANES will explore that some... as does the book!
The strangest thing to me is that we are clearly past the point of autonomous vehicles being hypothetical — it is real, it is here, it works — yet most people haven’t realized this. When I talk to people about autonomy, even people in the “urbanist” sphere, they mostly give me a funny look and shrug. I wonder what the “iPhone” moment for autonomous vehicles will finally be — or if we won’t have one at all, because the change happens so gradually that people hardly notice?
The fact that robotaxis are proceeding city-by-city precludes an iPhone moment. It will be less Apple than Gibson: robotaxis are here, just not evenly distributed.
Andrew, you are absolutely correct that the transit agencies should shoulder this responsibility here. Supplementing budget busting bus routing is the most compelling argument I have heard yet. One thing to remember though, most public transportation agencies are in the business of moving people only after creating jobs. This might be a tough sell.
I feel like we already saw a preview of this with micromobility, where cities at best grudgingly tolerated and at worst actively impeded or outright banned what could have been a revolutionary improvement to transportation. I'm curious if you compare to the politics of that to figure out how to avoid making the same mistakes again
Great comparison. In the case of micro mobility it requires a complete overhaul of our streetscape and how we interact with it. We are not nimble decision makers so to your point we just threw in the towel. I fear that autonomous cars will face the opposite problem. At the onset they require absolutely no involvement for it to work on the existing right of ways. Which means we will get apathy from decision makers and the all the shortcoming listed above will be sure to come to pass.
I hope it's not SURE they come to pass. That's the idea motivating the book: to lay out a plan to get a better outcome!
We look at it to some extent. The difference is that scooters and their ilk annoyed everyone who was not a scooter-user, i.e., almost everyone, by polluting walkways with unused devices, riding on sidewalks and menacing pedestrians, riding recklessly in mixed traffic, and so forth. Robotaxis will annoy some people; help others; and make no difference to yet another set. The politics will be different... but even so, grudging toleration and outright impediment are clearly future possibilities!
Great job. I think you overlooked a third path (it would be #2 on the list). That is for the Waymo's of the world to continue to grow and grow and become the dominant transportation provider. It doesn't end different than #1 (it still "will tend to worsen congestion, sprawl, inequity, and the inefficient use of urban space") but it deserves to be mentioned, as this is some people's vision and worth recognizing that the outcome is just as bad.
What you suggest, in a nutshell, is a scenario that is the subject of Chapter 12: how robotaxi dominance might happen, the mixed results from a public-good perspective, and how we might improve the outcomes through appropriate policy. Future issues of CHANGING LANES will explore that some... as does the book!
What you suggest, in a nutshell, is a scenario that is the subject of Chapter 12: how robotaxi dominance might happen, the mixed results from a public-good perspective, and how we might improve the outcomes through appropriate policy. Future issues of CHANGING LANES will explore that some... as does the book!
The strangest thing to me is that we are clearly past the point of autonomous vehicles being hypothetical — it is real, it is here, it works — yet most people haven’t realized this. When I talk to people about autonomy, even people in the “urbanist” sphere, they mostly give me a funny look and shrug. I wonder what the “iPhone” moment for autonomous vehicles will finally be — or if we won’t have one at all, because the change happens so gradually that people hardly notice?
The fact that robotaxis are proceeding city-by-city precludes an iPhone moment. It will be less Apple than Gibson: robotaxis are here, just not evenly distributed.
I think you buried the lede! Congratulations on the upcoming publication to you and your co-authors! I know how hard you’ve all worked on this book. 🎉